The vast, emerging economies of India and China could surpass the ailing West in terms of share of world GDP within the next five years, creating a new, very dif ferent world order for managers to contend with.

According to a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), titled The World in 2050: Beyond the BRICs, with advanced economies being hit harder by the financial crisis than the large emerging economies, particularly those in China and India, there will begin to be a gradual shift in the global centre of gravity, at least in financial and trade terms.

By 2013 the share of emerging economies, on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) definition, could rise to just in excess of half of world GDP in purchasing power parity terms, up from 43.7 per cent in 2007. The figures are based on analysis of data and pro jections by the IMF, combined with PwC’s own projections.

“It is striking that such a sig nificant shift in the world GDP share from advanced economies to emerging economies could occur within as little as five years,” said PwC head of macroe conomics John Hawksworth, “and that by 2013 more than half of the world GDP could come from these high growth countries.”.

Although the US would remain in first place, by 2013 its share of world GDP is projected to fall to 18.6 per cent, down from 21.7 per cent in 2007. China, according to the research, could overtake the Euro area and move into second place, while India could nudge ahead of Japan for the first time.

Further, Russia and Africa could move ahead of the UK, with Britain’s share of world GDP falling to 2.9 per cent, from the 3.3 per cent recorded in 2007.

“The analysis provides an interesting insight into how the opportunities for investors from the UK and other advanced economies are likely to change as the emerging economies grow their consumer markets,” said PwC head of emerging markets Ian Coleman.

“Instead of being viewed pre dominantly as low-cost manu facturing and off-shoring centres by business in the advanced economies, the projections indi cate they are fast becoming des tination markets in themselves”

The PwC projections echo pre dictions from some quarters that the West will, over the next few decades, see an exodus of talent to emerging economies. As a result, PwC maintained, managers will need to be prepared for a completely new, international management environment, as the flow of skilled and unskilled labour between the developing and developed economies increases.